Lockout After-Effects

Before week three last year, I was in the 99th percentile for ESPN's Pigskin Pick 'Em, with and without the spread. The full offseason let me get an understanding of each teams identity, so I knew who was legit and who was ready to be upset. This year I had a 50% week one, and even though I'm rebounding I didn't start off near where I'd like to. There just hasn't been enough time for me to get a read on how these teams are built. I say all this not just to brag, but to intro the return of weekly picks. 

• Patriots @ Bills (+8.5) - Take the Bills. Fred Jackson's always run hard against us and the secondary is not 100%. My only concern with taking them is their offensive line has some injuries. If we can get  consistent pressure on Fitz, then maybe it's a blowout. 
• 49ers @ Bengals (-2.5) - I can't get a read on the Niners. They look like crap vs. the awful Seahawks, but then give the talented Cowboys a run for their money. I feel like the Bengals have been improving though, so I'd take them. 
• Dolphins @ Browns (-2.5) - The Dolphins are better than an 0-3 team. They have solid lines, but Henne's too inconsistent for them to be a playoff contender. The Browns are even more inconsistent though, so I'm going with the Phins. 
• Broncos @ Titans (-6.5) - This one's all gut. I don't think the Titans can follow up a great performance vs. the Ravens with another big win. The spread's too big for me, take the points. 
• Lions @ Vikings (+3.5) - I'm pretty sure I'd take the Lions -10. Not sure why this line is so small. 
• Texans @ Saints (-3.5) - The Texans are going to make the playoffs, but they're not better than the Saints. I don't think they're good enough to come in to New Orleans and win. 
• Giants @ Eagles (-7.5) - With all the injuries the Giants have (HAHA), I'm in on the Eagles, and would be even if Kafka was playing. 
• Jaguars @ Panthers (-3.5) - Finally there's a team that the Panthers can beat. I'm curious to see Gabbert play, but Newton has been amazing and he's finally getting a win. 
• Chiefs @ Chargers (-14.5) - This line could be bigger. The Chiefs have nothing going for them at all. Chargers. 
• Jets @ Raiders (+3.5) - Upset of the week. The Jets are coming off a big win and the Raiders are coming off a close loss. The Coliseum's sold out and they won't be disappointed. 
• Ravens @ Rams (+3.5) - There's no way the Ravens lay an egg two weeks in a row. As much as I like the Rams, it's not their week... again. 
• Falcons @ Buccaneers (-1.5) - I think the Falcons are better than the Bucs, so taking points is no problem. 
• Packers @ Bears (+3.5) - I've got a sneaking suspicion that the Bears will show up for this game, but Rodgers has been too good this year to take the Bears. 
• Cardinals @ Seahawks (+3.5) - The Seahawks suck. 
• Steelers @ Colts (+10.5) - I'm very tempted to take the Colts, but I have zero faith in Kerry Collins. Steelers. 
• Redskins @ Cowboys (-6.5) - I don't understand this line AT ALL. The Cowboys are hurt, Romo's got bruised ribs, and their line is weak. If I had a bookie, I'd lay a good amount of money on the Skins.